Guys, I'm very worried, and so I worry about the people I like and have respect for. I hope you all are being careful and following CDC suggestions.
When this is over, I want us all to be here still and to be talking about our love. Hell, I might make a post about maple fretboards being more "open sounding" than rosewood fretboards. Or I might say it's in the hands or that it's just the pickups. Something to stir you old farts up. Make sure you're alive.
If we'd known we were going to be the Beatles, we'd have tried harder.--George Harrison
I'll do my best.
"When injustice becomes law then rebellion becomes duty."
I'm being careful, but I'm not being crazy. Having been in the data processing field (that's what we called it before it morphed into "IT"), I tend to digest actual data, and not pay attention to "models" where the modelers may not have accurate data, incomplete data, or agenda-driven conclusions they want to support. That means the coronavirus pandemic is a real thing. It also means that a small minority of the populace will contract it, and and even smaller percentage will die from it.
From all the stuff that passes for "news" over the airwaves these days, you'd think we were in the End Times (maybe people have been watching too many episodes of The Walking Dead?). The truth as I've been able to ferret out, is that the fatality rate is probably in the one-tenth of one percentile. And that's just based on population figures. Further digging suggests the most vulnerable are older males with existing health problems (that includes many of us, from what I've read). But it's not the end of the world, and it's not going to keep me from running, biking, playing guitar, and cooking up some tasty foods!
+1!
I blame the hysterical lame-stream media with its "if it bleeds it leads" mentality. They seem to thrive on promoting panic instead of presenting scientific facts. The Kung Flu is serious but documentably less so than H1N1, SARS, and a host of other maladies that have emerged since the turn of the century. And political opportunists at all levels -- local, state, and federal -- are using this situation to create fear and a dependency mentality among the citizenry.
"When injustice becomes law then rebellion becomes duty."
Well, my best friend is now in a hospital in Florida fighting for his life so it's REAL to me. They don't expect him to make it. My newly discovered brother and his wife (in White Plains, NY) both have it, but after a couple rough weeks they are both on the mend. One of my wife's friends lives in an elderly housing complex and the two neighbors closest to her both got it - one died yesterday. Medical personnel were in the building yesterday wearing Hazmat suits. This $hit is real! She's 74 and not in great health, we worry about her. Media hype ? statistics ? Not to me.
"We catched fish and talked, and we took a swim now and then to keep off sleepiness." Mark Twain
Nobody is saying it isn't real, GJ. I'm a data processing professional, and so I look at data. Fact: COVID-19 has affected every country on earth. Fact: It's a pandemic. Fact: People are dying (e.g., John Prine, on another thread). Anybody who denies facts is living in a dream world. My approach to this is to be aware of the facts, but not spend a lot of time worrying about what the "experts" say may -- or may not -- happen. As long as I, you, us take the necessary precautions, we'll get through this. But I'm not going to hide in my house, peeking through the curtains for the "boogeyman virus."
GJ, I'm with you. This thing is real, and it's serious. I'm having to back off the news though because it is scaring me and causing my anxiety to go through the roof. They do use trigger words and whatever they can to sell ads. But I also feel the need to be informed. I avoid CNN and Fox and the cable outlets as much as possible.
If we'd known we were going to be the Beatles, we'd have tried harder.--George Harrison
i feel like OldStrummer, I'm not gonna hole up in fear waiting to die. I still open the shop every day, although I only actually take in a few jobs a week. My wife's sisters are worry warts, one won't leave their house, or let others in! My daughter picked her up some things last week, and she had to leave them at the bottom of her drive!
On another note, I stopped at Albertsons this morning to pick up some beer, and noticed toilet paper, and paper towels on the shelves! Maybe everyone's spare bedroom is now full?
while I still have some, i checked Target today and no paper towels or clorox wipes. I'm not panicking. I go out albeit not as much as I used to. Mostly what's keeping me in is the goddam weather. I need more exercise the lack of activity and the excess sitting around is causing me to sleep all day and then I can't stay asleep at night.
"Live and learn and flip the burns"
Where do I sign?Originally Posted by phantomman
We must stay safe and obey the sanitary authorities' reccomendations, but if there's one thing we also must do is keep our minds sane. The panic only makes things worse.
There's a difference between panic and legitimate fear.
I can't speak for other states, but I'm not seeing panic here in Ohio. Our governor and D.o.H. chief clamped down Ohio quickly. Our reported deaths increase by 20-40 every day, but that is a fraction of what is happening in other states that didn't take it seriously soon enough, and/or have different population density and travel influx.
731 people died in New York on Monday. Over 800 yesterday.
Very legitimate cause for fear, I think.
Panic isn't helpful, for sure. Hoarding stuff like TP, cleaning supplies, food items, ammo, etc., is the opposite of helpful, stemming also from panic.
Trying to stay positive during this crazy time of Stay-At-Home orders, definitely is helpful. But saying that the media is making this seem worse is a specious argument, because it presumes that left-leaning or right-leaning media outlets have any control over who is dying. Both MS-NBC and FoxNews are reporting those same, staggering numbers. The front page of neither website appears to want me to panic. Both scare the shit out of me.
My hope is that you all and your loved ones are staying safe, healthy, and as positive as you can.
Turns out my buddy died yesterday. I'm feeling like $hit right now. I've known the guy for 48 years and we had a lot of adventures together. I'm really going to miss him.
"We catched fish and talked, and we took a swim now and then to keep off sleepiness." Mark Twain
That's tough, GJ. My heart goes out to you, and to your buddy's family.
sorry to hear that, GJ
"Live and learn and flip the burns"
GJ, I'm so sorry, man. So sorry.
If we'd known we were going to be the Beatles, we'd have tried harder.--George Harrison
Oh man. So sorry, Nick.
Sorry to hear that, GJ.
we're holed up in my house now - venturing out maybe once a week for milk and such.
My brother-in-law was presenting similar symptoms, though the tests came out negative. They were fixated on the false negative results, but it seems more like the flu or pneumonia rather than Covid. He's in quarantine in his basement, with his wife upstairs - she leaves food on the stairs I guess?
My brother-in-law's brother and his wife are both sick in NYC.
He's in the hospital with full respirator. He has been stable the past couple days, so... fingers crossed? She's got mild symptoms, so she's holed up at home.
********************************
"Do you call sleeping with a guitar in your hands practicing?"
"It is if you don't drop it."
- Trent Lane, Daria, Episode 1-2.
The loss of lives is tragic, and it's starting to happen all around us, so we have to do everything we can do to stay well and not to spread this thing.
Unlike politicians and the media, I don't want to politicize it, and if possible, I'd like us to leave politics out of this thread. I say this with complete respect and affection for all of you.
I'm starting to get over the shock of what's happening. With the help of my doc, I'm handling it more logically now.
If we'd known we were going to be the Beatles, we'd have tried harder.--George Harrison
Condolences GJ.
What happend?
Who let the magic smoke out?
Sad news GJ.
Lotsalove.......take care stay well.
I have decided to be happy because it's good for my health.
Really sorry to hear that, my friend.
We're NY Tough.
But we're in the eye of the storm and if anybody thinks this is hyped or a media creation, I invite them to come here to see it in person. When it's on your TV screen filtered through the lens of partisan reporting it may not be scary, but living through it - in person - it's terrifying, and I've got my bona fides as a tough guy.
Anybody who wants to make light of this, please reconsider your point of view.
Everybody stay the fuck home. This thing sneaks up on your community so fast you can't believe it.
Nick, I am truly sorry for your loss.
Chuck
"No harmonic knowledge, no sense of time, a ghastly tone, unskilled vibrato, and so on. Chuck is one of the worst guitar players I know" -Gravity Jim
Damned straight, OA.
If we'd known we were going to be the Beatles, we'd have tried harder.--George Harrison
Problem is, the "actual data" -even the stuff the modellers are using - is flawed in the sense that these data are based on observations from testing non-random samples of the population (e.g., higher risk subsets of the general population) where the testing selection protocols vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction. Apples != apples in all cases. Given that, I think it's way too soon to call it one way or another whether few or many people will contract it and/or if few or many people will die from it. Even the death numbers are suspect: is each and every case due directly to COVID-19 or was there some co-morbidit(ies)??? We won't know that emprirically for a while yet.
I would *love* to see the results of a large scale random stratified sample of tests for COVID-19 or its antibodies but as we all know right now, test capacity is a severe limitation right now. And what do the tests prove anyways - that I was "not infected"/"infected" yesterday, right? What I start showing symptoms tomorrow? We also don't fully understand the rates of Type I or Type II errors in these tests yet, either.
I'm a proponent of statistical modelling - and especially predictive modelling (did a Masters degree in that) - but when you take into account these basic flaws in observations, the models are surely going to be way out whack. I kind of expect the time to come when a whole bunch of positive test results come out at once when the testing capacity/throughput eventually increases - then we're likely to see these modelled results all blown to hell.
I really hope it goes the other way, though. Based on what we know now, there's a 50-50 chance!
Last edited by dirtdog; 04-13-2020 at 04:34 PM.
And then you read things like this!
What are the "real" numbers anyway?
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/202...ocument-video/
No denominator no equation.
Exactly!
My condolences to you GJ I can't imagine what you are feeling right now.
So, while i am sad that some people have succumbed to the disease. I think there is a positive outlook to look at.
I'm definitely a "target". I'm 67 years old, I have other issues that make me more definitely susceptiple, I've made provisions in the event that I don't survive. But my wish is people remain more positive. If something happened to me and I didn't survive, my hope would be that people in general would be more positive, pay a little less attention to the news, and get on with their life. Having survived cancer, I can tell you that a positive outlook can make all the difference.
For some that may not be easy without a job. But I would still encourage them to remain positive. I am.
In the meantime, I remain asymptomatic. I'm grateful for that.
I just lost a friend to pancreatic cancer, nothing to do with Corona virus. I knew him for 38 years. I couldn't go to the funeral.
It's unusual times.
Again, my condolences for the loss of your friend.
vinyl
Just ran across your post this am. I'm sorry for your loss. 48 yrs seems like a good long stretch until it's over; then it's not long enough.
"Such a long, long time to be gone and a short time to be there."
Box of Rain- Robert Hunter
It's been surreal. Because of COVID-19 the funeral was private - nobody could attend. Heck, they wouldn't even let his wife be with him in the hospital - he died alone. Well, I have a lot of good memories - they'll sustain me when I'm down.
Here's a pic from better days - he really loved his boat - caught a lot of fish with him...
His other favorite thing to do was eat - we took the trip to Chicopee, Mass a few times a year for BEEF!
Last edited by gibsonjunkie; 04-17-2020 at 05:49 AM.
"We catched fish and talked, and we took a swim now and then to keep off sleepiness." Mark Twain
good memories, GJ
Chicopee? whodathunkit?
"Live and learn and flip the burns"
Was thinking that -
GJ, Where in Chicopee is that?
********************************
"Do you call sleeping with a guitar in your hands practicing?"
"It is if you don't drop it."
- Trent Lane, Daria, Episode 1-2.
Meat Nirvana! http://www.berniesdiningdepot.com/
You eat in a railroad dining car and the food is unbelievable!
"We catched fish and talked, and we took a swim now and then to keep off sleepiness." Mark Twain
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